The Myths of Blackjack

Casino blackjack is catching the eyes of many gamblers across the planet as it proved to be the best option for making big money.

I could cite much more evidence, but that is not the purpose of this book. Every mathematical simulation done on blackjack will tell you the same thing-progressive betting will never make you a winner over the long haul. If the house has a 1 percent edge on a given game, then you will lose approximately 1 percent of your money regardless of how often you change your bets. In the short run, you might get lucky and push out the big guns at the right time. But unless you're counting, there's no reason to ever jump your bets and expect to gain any advantage by doing so. If progressive betting makes you happy and gives you a more pleasurable gaming experience, then feel free to continue frolicking. However, if your concept of fun involves winning rather than losing, then let me explain how card counting works.

CARD COUNTING 101

This section is markedly different from the earlier part of the chap¬ter because card counting is not just another false system. Indeed, the casinos would like people to dismiss card counting as just another one of the myths of gambling-one that is impossible to do without a photographic memory-or is an outdated technique that no longer exists because of six-deck shoes. If becoming a winning card counter were truly unattainable for us mortals, then my writing and you reading this book would be a complete waste of time. Yet it can be done-by people like me and by readers like YQU.

Later chapters will cover the how of card counting. At this juncture all I will cover is the why. It's important this concept is fully understood before you try to improve your blackjack skills, because if you truly believe it can be done, then you will be far more motivated. It is only natural that some people are skeptical of card counting. Almost every game of chance has its share of quacks selling books with a secret system guaranteed to beat the house. Unfortunately, they forgot to put the truth in the blurbs-that the only way they got rich was by selling suckers their book, not by using their anniversary date to beat the lottery. I suggest you check out the credentials of anyone who wants to sell you a book showing how to win easy money. My guess is few of their tax returns would measure up to their claims.

MEMORY

I consistently won because blackjack is different from other casino games. This quirk that allows people to exploit the game is best illustrated by two key words-dependent and independent. Those terms aren't used just to explain the status of your relationship after you return home from an all-night gambling bender. They also have some applications in mathematics and show why the game of twenty-one differs markedly from other table games.

Craps and roulette are the best models to illustrate the concept of independent trial processes. Simply put, it means each new roll or spin is totally independent of any previous results. This is intuitive to most people, yet commonly ignored.

For example, a shooter may be hot as a pistol at the craps table.

Yet the odds against him throwing another seven on his next roll is exactly the same as when he started-5 to 1. The dice have absolutely no memory, and the past does not affect the future:

The flip side of that example can be found in roulette. A tourist may be monitoring the sequence of numbers that have hit over the last few hours at the wheel. He has noticed that his favorite number (22) hasn't come up once, so he assumes it is due and starts betting it heavily. However, the odds again remain unchanged. The hence of hitting 22 remains fixed, no matter what has transpired earlier in the’ day, since the little ivory ball has no memory.